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What Factors Affect Green Coffee Prices?

By B. Turner
Updated May 16, 2024
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Coffee roasters and local coffee shops get their beans from farms and plantations around the world. Before they are heated or roasted, they are known as green coffee beans. These beans represent a widely-used commodity throughout the world, and are often bought or traded just like sugar, oil, or metals. Like other commodities, green coffee prices are largely determined by supply and demand for these beans. Prices increase when supply is threatened, or if demand goes up, and prices go down due to excess supply or lack of demand.

World supply has a tremendous impact on green coffee prices. Coffee beans are generally grown in very specific climate zones, which provide the right temperature, sun exposure, and soil conditions for these beans to thrive. Unfortunately, many coffee-growing regions are also threatened by political instability and unrest. These types of political conditions can make it difficult to grow or trade beans, which can negatively impact world supplies. Some countries may also impose trade restrictions that could further influence supply.

Weather and disease can also impact green coffee prices. Plant diseases, pests, and bad weather can lead to a poor harvest. Global warming, which contributes to world temperature changes and extreme weather conditions, may also interfere with coffee harvests. Growers may have to abandon their fields and find new sites more conducive to growing as temperature or weather changes within a region. Anytime supply of these beans is impacted, the prices of green coffee could also be affected.

The demand for coffee throughout the world also has a significant impact on green coffee prices. In many areas, coffee demand is fairly inelastic, as there are few substitutes. As more people demand coffee as part of their daily lifestyle, green coffee will tend to increase in price over time. This problem may be exacerbated as demand for coffee increases in countries like Brazil or China, where people have traditionally not maintained a strong demand for coffee. The trend towards coffee shops and coffee bars in many parts of the world has also led to increased demand for green beans.

Outside of supply and demand, prices can also be impacted by speculative trading on the financial markets. If investors buy large quantities of coffee commodities shares, they may artificially inflate the price of coffee. These inflated prices may remain even after commodities trading has restored market prices to normal levels. Even trading in futures markets for related goods, like oil, could influence green coffee prices.

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Discussion Comments
By irontoenail — On Jun 09, 2011

@indigomoth - With a Starbucks on every corner of the world (two on some corners!) it's hardly surprising demand for coffee is going up.

I've heard speculation that chocolate prices are going to sky rocket in the next few years as more and more people in poor countries start becoming less poor and more able to make the decision not to work on backbreaking farms to make the stuff.

I wonder if green coffee bean prices will go the same way. It's a good thing of course, because exploitation of workers is obviously wrong, but I hope another solution can be found before coffee becomes as valuable as caviar.

By indigomoth — On Jun 08, 2011

It's amazing how much demand for coffee has gone up in the last few decades or so.

I suppose it must be yet another sign of the influence of US culture on the world, as it was the US who first began to drink coffee regularly, rather than tea. I think it was because at one point Britain controlled most of the tea in the world, and when they were fighting against the US they cut off the supply.

It's a bit of a shame really, as tea is better for you, with lots of cancer fighting chemicals and so on. Coffee has good points as well, but not as many as tea.

Coffee does taste very good though.

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